Critical minerals in the Arctic

China controls almost every critical mineral the green transition needs. Gørild Heggelund, research professor at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, explains how it built that lead, going back to a Deng Xiaoping line about oil and rare earths, and why the Arctic states now want an alternative. We get into where the deposits are and what mining means for the people who live there, why Greenland's projects have stalled, Norway's pause on deep sea mining, and China's rare earth export controls against the US. And why Russia and China, so often grouped together in the Arctic, cooperate far less on minerals than their friendship suggests. Our last episode of the season.

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:01

The metals in your phone, in your car, and in your solar panel are all, nearly all, controlled by one state. And now the Arctic has also opened up its eyes and interests for critical minerals in the region. Welcome to the Circumpolar. This is our last episode of the season. And today with me I have an expert on China, but also on critical minerals and the Arctic. Research professor Gördil Heglin from the Fritz of Nansen Institute. Thank you so much for coming. Thank you for inviting me.

SPEAKER_00 0:37

It's a very important topic these days.

SPEAKER_01 0:40

Absolutely. And critical minerals, they have been the top story in recent times in the Arctic, but also in the world. But why is the increased focus on critical minerals happening now?

SPEAKER_00 0:53

Why not ten years ago? Well, it's a good question. I think what is happening in the world, I mean there are many answers, I think. You know, there are many reasons why. One of them is that we are now in the middle of a green transition, or we're trying to be in the middle of a green transition, and we need different uh minerals, you know, for the batteries in the cars and the the phones. You were mentioning several things we need the critical minerals for. So that is one aspect. And then the other aspect is that uh the world has changed in the past 10 years. I mean, geopolitics have come up to the table or on the agenda much more. And as you mentioned in the beginning, there is one country that is kind of dominant in the supply chains, critical minerals, and that is China. And as we know, there have been, well, challenges, I guess, uh geopolitical challenges in recent years, especially between China and the US. I mean, the trade wars also involves critical minerals. And so these are some reasons why we are looking towards the Arctic. I mean, I'm not sure the Arctic is looking towards the Arctic, but I think other countries and like Norway, you know, and Sweden, even great, you know, Greenland, I mean Finland, I mean, all countries are looking towards the Arctic to see if there are uh critical minerals that can be used for this purpose of the green transition and also to be more or less uh dependent upon China in this uh transition. So these are some reasons that have come up to the table, and there are many challenges, of course, with this. I mean, for one thing is that China has, you know, had a very long-term policy regarding critical minerals and started actually looking into, you know, processing and talking about this issue actually many, many years ago, when Deng Xiaoping, the great leader of China, when he was the head or leader of China, actually they have had a very long-time policy for critical minerals. So that is uh, you know, one of the reasons why China has become so dominant in this area. And at the time, Europe was not so interested in, you know, digging and extracting critical minerals because it's uh, you know, it has a very high impact on on the nature, environmental impact. I mean, it's a dirty business in many ways. And China did this, and Europe thought, okay, it's okay. I mean, we China can do it. We uh we don't have to do it, we can import from from China uh cheaply. And then also in Europe, I think people were not so keen, you know, to have this kind of industry in in their countries because it is very dirty and uh very uh, you know, consumes a lot of energy, consumes resources, water, I mean, all of those things. So that is some of the reasons why we have kind of kind of come ended up in this situation, being very dependent upon China. I mean, we cannot really blame China, I think, for this. You know, this is our own kind of decision to do this. So that is kind of like a background to this situation that we are in now. And uh because we are are also, as I mentioned, we are trying to get away from fossil fuels. So the green transition, you know, the electric vehicles. I mean, Norway, we people buy electric vehicles and we need in the production of electric vehicles, you know, you need lithium and you need other things that are critical minerals. So yeah, so that is the long answer to your question.

SPEAKER_01 4:12

You mentioned that mining these uh minerals is a dirty business. And now this dirty business is coming to the Arctic. What kind of minerals, what kinds of rare earth elements are there in the Arctic? And where in the Arctic are they?

SPEAKER_00 4:27

Well, it's it's a good question. I mean, where in the Arctic? I mean, we do have some examples from Norway, for instance, where you have uh Siedvaranger in Finnmark. They're now starting up again. There used to be a mine there and they're starting up again now in 20, well, 2027, I think it is, you know, with iron ore. You have Kiruna in the north of Sweden, which is also one of the largest iron ore mines. And as we have seen from Kiruna in Sweden, that uh the the town or the city has had to move its population. I mean, I visited there in was it last year or the year before anyway, that when uh when they had where they they came with the decision, a new decision to move even more people. I mean, I think it's like 10 to 12,000 people that have to move their homes away because it's the the town is sinking. So and there was also a lot of coverage of the church that was being moved, you know, in Kiruna. So it does have some impact on people's lives. But of course, uh many uh experts think it is possible, you know, to do this also in a sustainable way, which uh, you know, might be possible, I don't know. But in any case, I think, you know, there will be some impacts on on on the environment and people might have to move, you know, and things like that. So it does seem to to to be have there are some challenges, of course. And also especially in the north, in uh in the Arctic, you know, in Sweden, in Finland, in Norway, etc. You have the Sami people and indigenous peoples who live there and also the local populations, you know, they're affected by the lifestyles are affected by the um these mines. And oftentimes uh indigenous peoples are not so happy about these mining projects. So that is also part of the the big picture of this extraction of of critical minerals, I would say. You know, you have to it's not just about the environment, but it's also about, you know, impacting people's lives in in the you know the traditions in the Nordic Arctic. Are they hurt the interests of the people? Well, I think uh in some cases yes, and maybe in some cases no. Or I wouldn't say no, but uh I have heard from uh people who are experts on these issues that uh that maybe sometimes the indigenous peoples are included very late in the process. So one one suggestion from indigenous people would be to you know involve them from the beginning of the process, you know, to try to avoid some of the impacts, but I'm not sure, you know, if it is possible to avoid all of it, all of these things. So it's a it's a challenging question, I think. You know, if it seems, I mean, we do have uh that's not in the Arctic, but in Telemark in Norway, you have the Fansfelda rare earth elements. I mean, you have 17 rare earth elements, and this is uh an area that is going to be developed. And it seems in that process that people have been involved in in the process from the beginning. But, you know, these are you know, there will always be people who will oppose, you know, to such projects that have big or certain impacts on on the nature or environment and people's livelihoods.

SPEAKER_01 7:22

But the ambition scale of the critical minerals dream is quite large, right? The the ambitious ambitions are quite high and and the topic is high on the agenda in many policy forums. But how realistic is this dream? I mean, we hear uh from the United States when Trump was interested in Greenland, this incre uh increased influence or disc increased investment in the critical minerals industry, but there is nothing happening in Greenland, at least when it comes to extraction yet. And and there are many other I mean how realistic is this?

SPEAKER_00 8:02

Well, Greenland is a specific case, I think, in this sense now, because it's uh well, as we know, Trump really wanted to I don't know if he wants to buy Greenland or take over Greenland. There was a discussion. I don't think he has forgotten about Greenland, but right now I guess the US is busy with other things. But but I mean we don't really know why he was so obsessed with, you know, uh taking over, or not taking over perhaps, but at least, you know, having uh Greenland somehow. Uh because you know they have a possibility to be there in many ways, anyway, you know. So uh but uh Greenland, I think uh and China was interested, and uh and Trump was saying that China and Russia and Oregon they are in the area all the time, but actually that's not true. China has been interested in uh in the Field project, you know, in uh in Greenland. And there was a or at least this a company, a Chinese company, was involved. But that project has been put on hold or not uh developed anymore because of uh environmental issues and protests from the the public. So actually there are many uh protests against uh these such projects in in Greenland. Uh so it's uh not so easy. I mean, on the in theory, it's quite uh you know, it has a lot of different uh what do you call it, uh critical minerals that can be useful for the green transition, but to develop them it's it's more of a challenge because I mean they have copper, graphite, gallium, I mean all of these important uh minerals, but there are challenges because infrastructure is is challenging in in Greenland, of course. And you have to go by ship or by airplane many places. And also there's uh very a lot of uh political and social, how to say uh moodstone, what do you call it? Resistance. There's resistance against uh such uh projects, and then you also have the geopolitical complications, of course, you know, as I mentioned at the beginning, you know, with Trump and uh the US being so interested in Greenland and um and then Russia and China kind of I mean they had or at least China was interested in in Greenland, but I think China has pulled out. I think they understand it's very difficult to to establish any investments in in Greenland or in the Arctic in general because of suspicions and um you know also because it has to do with security, national security issues. And so uh that is why uh many countries, I think uh in the Arctic, uh the countries, Arctic countries, you know, they're they're hesitant to to allow China to invest in the Arctic. So but the question is also, you know, when you do want to process and to to extract uh minerals, how how can you do it sustainably? Will you be able to do it yourself here in Norway, for instance, or will you have to send things to China for them to process? I mean, that's what they do in China, right? Processing. So that is also a question, you know, will we actually be able to be very independent of, you know, the Chinese Chinese uh supply chains? So yeah. So but uh back to your question about uh Greenland, right now it seems uh at least a little bit uh difficult to to uh invest and to extract minerals in in Greenland.

SPEAKER_01 11:08

You mentioned how one of the reasons why this, or the main reason why the extraction was halted in Greenland is because of environmental concerns. And this is something we see across the board. We see this also in Norway with deep sea mining. In first December 1st, uh, last year, so 2025, this was put to a stop after Norway also being a pioneer in opening up for this deep sea mining, which is also about critical minerals, if I've understood it correctly. But these sustainability concerns, I mean, what role do they play for us in the West? You mentioned earlier that China ha t has taken this dirty job for us because we need many of these minerals, many of these elements. What role does the sustainability issue play for us here?

SPEAKER_00 11:56

Well, I think, you know, this is going to be on the agenda, you know, when you try to extract minerals in the Arctic, def for sure, you know, it will be a topic. And I mean, we have a project here at Def and I that is funded by Nord Fosch, a Nordic project that we look into, you know, the critical minerals in the Arctic and the challenges and well perceptions and uh opportunities or whatever in in the art in the Nordic countries like Finland, uh, Sweden, Norway, and also Greenland, Denmark. So uh we are looking into the policies around surrounding these um potential projects, also legal frameworks in you know, the Nordic countries. So this is a Nordic collaboration, so re experts and researchers from from five uh countries or five partners, I guess you could say, countries. And also we are actually also trying to look into this question of sustainability, you know, is it actually possible, you know, to have a sustainable extraction? So it's it's a good question, and I think it's a question that needs to be looked into even more, and in particular, I mean, in all both on land and in the sea, because so far I think one of the criticism from like uh organizations such as uh WF and others is that to to towards the Norway's decision decision at the time you know to allow you know the concessions of a deep sea looking into the possibilities to extract uh extract deep sea minerals was that the feasibility studies that were carried out were not sufficient, and still there are many questions about you know life in the sea. How will such uh extraction, how will that uh impact on life in the sea? So that is But there are many countries who are interested. I mean the US is interested, I mean I mean Japan, China, India, I mean many countries are interested in trying to extract uh deep sea minerals and are trying, you know, have received some concessions some places to do some how do you say, tests uh to try to extract minerals from the the deep sea uh from the bottom of the sea. There are interests in this, and you also have the international seabed authorities that you know are supposed to kind of regulate uh in the international waters. But you will have to see how how it works and how it develops, I think. And uh but the the interests in you know from countries is certainly there.

SPEAKER_01 14:12

Kind of gloomy on the environmental side prediction, but uh but this is kind of where we're at. I mean you spent we uh years researching China, not only China in the Arctic and China in critical minerals, but but China in in itself. And you mentioned then Xiaoping, and he has this line from the 90s where the Middle East has oil and China has its where earth. So when and this feels as relevant as ever now, so when it comes to that monopoly, because it's almost a monopoly, we could we could say uh when it comes to this monopoly from the Chinese side, do you think that it will crack? Will it be as easy to challenge it as the you could say, as Europe and the West tries to present it as? What's the dynamic here?

SPEAKER_00 14:57

Well, this is a good and interesting question because that is the question I think you know we have to ask ourselves. On the one hand, we want to be less dependent upon China, but on the other hand, we need to have the critical minerals from China to continue the green transition. So, how fast can we do this ourselves? That is also a question. And I think, you know, like European Union, I mean all European countries, you know, are trying to look into possibilities and also working together, I think, in different types of coalitions, you know, to increase, you know, different paths to to get to the the the minerals. And I think many are looking towards Norway, for instance, to towards the it's not in the Arctic, as I said, but in Telemark, the Fans Felte, where they will also start uh extracting uh rare earths eventually. So so there are, you know, there is interest and there is absolutely will, you know, to try to to extract and uh develop uh these minerals or yeah i in our own countries, but how fast can it happen? And another thing is that uh the minerals are not only used for uh you know the green transition, but it also have a military use, you know, it's in military equipment. So that is also another aspect here that makes it more, I guess, uh pertinent, you know, to try to be less dependent upon China. So uh but uh I think you know experts are working on these issues in Nordic countries in the Arctic, you know, is what is the possibility, what is the potential? And we can for instance the Arctic Economic Council, they gave they published a report, I think it was in 2024, with all with an overview of all the you know the critical minerals in in the Arctic uh in the north. So that is one, you know, if one is interested in learning about uh, you know, what kind of minerals exist in the different countries in the north in the Arctic, and also what are ongoing and what are planning planned projects in the Arctic. One can always check it out. But of course it's from Central 24, so it's not brand new, but I guess some of the projects are still ongoing and uh the plans are still there. So and Norway you know came out with its own critical mineral strategy a few years ago, and also there's a new law in Norway to, I guess basically to speed up maybe the process or allow you know the process to be sped up a bit, yeah, because it is a uh perceived as a very how to say a need, you know, to to be able to de extract and develop you know these minerals ourselves.

SPEAKER_01 17:21

I mean, but going back to to China and more recent times, last year, April 4th, they put this export control on seven heavy rare earth elements and on magnets. And on in October, it added more elements and new rules related to technology on equip that and equipment, and then on in November uh suspended the October measures for one year until this November. So this is very interesting. As part of the key Trump meeting, could you walk me through what is happening and what has happened last year in the relationship between China, maybe China and the US, but also with the rest of us with the critical minerals?

SPEAKER_00 18:06

Well, it's as you say, I mean, it's very difficult to follow, I think, all the developments between the US and China. But it is, of course, trade related. So as you mentioned, I mean there were exp export restrictions from China. Oftentimes as a response to to the US sanctions on different aspects regarding, you know, the chips, for instance, you know, that uh the US would put sanctions on export to China and other things. So then China has reacted. And I think the biggest happening, I guess, was when Trump came with his uh what do you call it, his Liberation Day, you know, overview all the tariffs and that China was going to have so many, you know, percentage of tariffs on their exports to the US. And uh in the end, I guess, you know, to make a long s story shorter, I think, is that uh China decided to have some export uh restrictions towards the US and the US, you know, felt that uh, you know, they kind of they were hit by that, you know. So in a way it was a geopolitical, you could say, or trade tool to to to get the US to kind of back off a little bit on the tariffs on on China. So that is what we have seen, that uh China has been willing, you know, to use it uh as a trade or as a geopolitical instrument, but oftentimes it has been as a response, you know, to US uh actions somehow. China is also quite, you know, dependent upon I mean, China doesn't have all its min the minerals in in China. I mean, it's also dependent upon import from other countries, you know, like uh Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo and other countries. So it also has some dependence and and China if you look at it from the Chinese point of view, it's also they're also a bit uh worried about security issues. You know, we are worried about security and national security and uh energy security in our countries, but China is also concerned about the same thing. So um that is also uh a part of the picture, you know, that China is uh maybe holding back on some of the minos. They need it themselves, in fact, for their own use, for their green transition, for instance. So I mean it's not just for geopolitics, I think, you know, it's also for their own kind of you know, they need it for their they're in the middle of a green transition themselves, you know. That's uh so I think just understanding a little bit of what's happening inside China is also quite important, I would say. And that's what we're trying to do as well in uh here at FNI, working together with others in in other partners uh who have uh worked on this issue for many years and looking at the Chinese policies, you know. What are the Chinese policies actually on critical minerals, rare earth elements? So yeah, that's really relevant, I think, for for us to understand, you know, what is happening. What are the Chinese policies on critical uh minerals and rare earth elements? They have many policies, long-term policies. I mean, they have uh different uh policies uh for the nation, the national policies. They have policies for the provinces, they have policies for the sectors, you know. It's like there are a lot of policies in China on these strategic minerals, as they call it oftentimes in in in China. So that is uh, you know, their long time or long-term policies that have kind of resulted in their dominant position in many ways. So the plea they have uh different uh plans and targets uh to to guide, you know, the and to ensure that they have a steady supply themselves, for instance. So that is quite important, you know, in their among their policies, for instance. So many uh, you know, different uh ministries and uh actors kind of in China who are involved in in this uh you know policy making around this uh critical minerals and uh rare earths. So yeah, but it is an issue that is uh you know important uh for China as well as us in Europe and other places. So I think it's sometimes it's important to remember that. It's not just from our perspective but uh also from from another perspective. From from the Chinese perspective.

SPEAKER_01 22:01

Before we move over to the last question, I have one more thing to to ask you. And this is about I mean, we've covered the United States. We talked about China. We talked about the Arctic, but we still have not talked about Russia. And you know, China and Russia, they often get grouped together, especially in the Arctic, they often get grouped together. And you co-edited a book, um, Friends in the Cold, on on the exactly this, China and Russia in the Arctic. But when we look at critical minerals specifically, is this do do China and Russia talk about critical minerals together? Are they are they coordinated on this or is this more of a separate issue?

SPEAKER_00 22:42

Well, that's a good question because as we know, we see that uh Russia and China they seem to be quite good friends, right? I mean, there are a lot of uh different um what do you call it uh uh statements from the leaders and from the two countries. They meet quite often, especially the leaders of the two countries, and uh seemingly they are very close in many ways. But on this aspect, I I'm not a Russia expert, so but uh I um know that uh Russia is a little bit hesitant, I think, to uh to be or at least to be too dependent upon China in the critical minerals yeah supply. China and Russia, you know, they work together on many issues and uh also energy issue, and uh it's yeah Russia has been very keen, you know, to in the Arctic, you know, to to have China to invest and to develop further the Siberia uh Paro Siber Siberia II, which is you know gas that's going to go from Siberia to China via Mongolia. But China has been very uh well, I don't know if you could say difficult, but it's uh bargaining, I think, the price and many other aspects. And but anyway, so you know, there are many and China is actually involved in Yamal Peninsula, you know, the Arctic LNG project there. So they do have quite a bit of cooperation, but in the critical minerals aspect it seems to be less uh cooperation between the two uh countries. I mean could uh change, but uh at the moment, uh to my knowledge, I mean it seems that Russia is a bit hesitant to be at least very dependent upon China in that issue. I mean, there are they appear they appear to be very close in many ways, but there are, you know, some skepticism also in in the countries towards each other. I'm not saying on the leadership level, but maybe, you know, other levels. I mean, we did some work here at the FNI with a colleague of mine as well, uh, who uh on the cooperation in the Northern Sea route between China and Russia. And we read, you know, academic articles from the two countries in Russian and Chinese, and there's a lot of uh a little, you know, maybe lack of trust also between the peoples of the two countries somehow. And I mean there are many historical reasons perhaps for this also, but uh you know, China is now kind of the big uh big brother in a way. I mean its uh economy is much stronger. Russia is much more isolated than before, and it's also dependent upon China in many ways. So uh but it was very interesting to see that there are, you know, some distrust or at least uh not yeah, between, you know, at least the academic papers, you know, in in the two countries. And especially, you know, Russia, you know, is or Russia, but some of the Russian academics who wrote that, yeah, what does China want, you know? And China is saying Chinese experts were saying, yeah, maybe, you know, Russia just wants our money and technology, but what it what is in it for us actually? And that is an aspect that it doesn't always come out so clearly, I think, you know, that uh China doesn't want to invest in Russia without uh everussian projects, you know, in the Arctic, without it being, you know, some kind of it has there has to be something in it for China, for the Chinese companies, you know. So that is uh yeah. There's some projects that have been on on the table for a long, long time, but they never materialize. So I mean that is I think an aspect of it all.

SPEAKER_01 25:57

Interesting. So let's say then you have all of the power in the in the world for just for one policy recommendation. So you have all the resources, all the legislative, economic, political influence, whatever, on sp specifically critical minerals.

SPEAKER_00 26:17

I wish.

SPEAKER_01 26:18

Yes. Ideal situation for a scientist to be in. But let's say you have this and you can provide one, maybe two, but ideally one policy recommendation to we can we can have it broad, since this is quite a broad issue. Let's say all of the Western Arctic states. It doesn't have to be to all of them, it can be specific. But but what is the what is the policy recommendation that you would then come with? What would you say make things happen? You mean uncritical minerals?

SPEAKER_00 26:45

Uncritical minerals. Yeah. Well, it's a hard question, I think. I mean a hard uh recommendation to make. And I think uh since we are, you know, very much dependent upon China and our countries, you know, would like to be less dependent, you know. On the one hand, I think okay, you know, we can try to to be very sustainable about it at least, you know, and include, you know, indigenous peoples, locate popul local populations, you know, in the processes, you know, to ensure that it doesn't really affect people too hard. Um and also the environment in the Arctic. I mean, it's a very pristine uh environment. We have to be careful about uh these uh things, I think. And since China has so much experience too, you know, is it something that we could learn from China in this process at all? You know, is there any way to cooperate somehow? You know, that is also something that we could, you know, is it even possible to think about that we could uh yeah both learn and to cooperate from China? Because right now it's very difficult to compete with China. We have tried, you know, in both Sweden and Norway to uh establish some well battery production in Sweden, for instance. Uh but uh it's been very difficult. And they had to rely on on Chinese experts and Chinese equipment as well. So so I think, you know, is there anything we could learn? Is it very bad, you know, that we do that for instance? But yeah, so that would be my I don't know if it's a recommendation or recommendations, but I would think, you know, or some thoughts around this issue, you know, the environment and also, you know, how to approach this, you know, without how can we do it, without, you know, being uh learning from China or I wouldn't call it uh recommendations, but maybe some kind of input in into this uh how should I say discussions and the the process that will be ongoing for some time.

SPEAKER_01 28:34

Thank you so much. It's been uh fantastic to have you.

SPEAKER_00 28:36

Thank you.

SPEAKER_01 28:37

And uh thank you for listening. We'll be back in the autumn. I don't know when yet.